Problem Selection In Social-And-Engineering Systems. M.S.Rubin

M.S.Rubin "Problem Selection In Social-And-Engineering Systems"

Rubin M.S., May 15, 2007.

Problems of multi-aspect TRIZ analysis of social-and-engineering systems are described based on particular examples. Methodological recommendations on conducting TRIZ analysis are given; alterations of certain TRIZ notions are suggested (e.g., engineering contradiction, operation zone, etc.). Forecasting methods are analyzed from the standpoint of problem statement. A system of global forecasts for social-and-engineering systems evolution should become a part of culture for engineers and inventors.

1. Multi-aspect analysis of social-and-engineering systems (SES)

Engineering and social systems are usually analyzed using different methods. For example, a car is an engineering system, while a nation or a ministry is a social system. Usually, the methods of description and analysis, which are applied to these systems, are also different.

There are systems that could be concurrently related both to engineering ones and to social ones - e.g., a city, a manufacturing plant or a power plant. Such systems could be described and analyzed from different standpoints: technological, organizational-and-social, legal, financial-and-economical and others. One of the specific features of such systems is the fact that the problems (tasks) formulated in one aspect in the language of a certain set of disciplinary notions, could be solved within an absolutely different aspect: from the positions of another discipline.

Example 1. The mayor of one seaport decided to replenish the public treasury through additional taxes imposed upon fast food facilities located on the embankment - favorite place of the citizens for rest. These taxes are not absolutely legal, but it is rather difficult to step onto a controversy with the authorities.
This problem is obviously of social-and-economic nature. However, in every social system there are different aspects, in particular, engineering ones. A smart businessman paid attention to this particular aspect of the problem. Instead of useless discussions with a dishonest mayor, (late, in few years, the mayor was sentenced for excess of his powers), the businessman moored an old barge to the embankment, on which he opened a small restaurant and fast food cafe. And people from the entire embankment came to visit this "floating fast food canteen".

In fact, the existence of every engineering system implies a social aspect. And vice versa – the activity and evolution of any social system implies an engineering aspect.  Therefore, only such systems could be called purely engineering or purely social, in which we intentionally or non-intentionally rejected the analysis of its other constituents. In certain cases such narrow approach is justified, while in some cases it is not feasible.

Example 2. In 1992 the Apatity Combined Heat and Power Production Plant (Murmansk Province, Russia) encountered a problem of improving the technology for coal quality determination.  The system of coal quality control approved by GosStandart (State standard authority) demanded at least three days for performing the control at the power plant. During this time the entire train of coal is burnt in the furnaces, and in case of low quality of coal it is impossible to place any claims with the supplier.  It was necessary to improve the technology in such a way that these terms are reduced at least to 2 days. The problem was still more complicated because of the fact that only one day was given for solving it – the problem was presented to the Board of directors of the company.
The problem, which was initially formulated as a purely engineering (technological) one, was reformulated into an organizational-and-legal one.
As a result it was proposed to introduce an alteration into the contract for coal supply and to include a provision into it, which implies the use of express analysis technology (instead of state standard for coal quality evaluation), which actually enables to evaluate coal quality during several hours. The contracts with suppliers who wouldn't agree with such provision in the contract could be terminated. The proposal was approved by the Board of Directors of the Combined Heat and Power Production Plant and saved enormous amount of funds for the plant.

By social-and-engineering systems we mean a system that is analyzed in a multi-aspect way. And this analysis is not conducted only from engineering or social standpoint. Types of aspect for analyzing the systems are very different - physical, chemical, engineering, biological, social (related to personal psychology, organizational, legal, linguistic, aesthetic, financial and economical, political, etc.).
In a number of cases the multi-aspect approach yields a broader spectrum of opportunities for selecting problems as well as resources for solving these problems.

Example 3. In the beginning of 1990-ies the Hydro-turbines of Nizhnetulomskaya Hydro-Electric Power Plant were dismantled. This dismantling could be done only through explosion – the generators were cemented into the foundation of the hydro power plant. To avoid stopping the operation of hydro power plant, the turbines were dismantled one by one.  For a short time prior to the explosion, the operation of all hydro turbines (including the functioning ones) was stopped and then they were started once again.  The problem consists in the dust that is produced as a result of explosion. The dust was drawn into the functioning hydro turbines and caused their outage. There are many directions in the search for the solution for this problem situation. It is possible to try to find a method for destructing the foundation without any dust generation. It is possible to direct the generated dust into one particular place far from other turbines and then to take it away or to carry it beyond the boundaries of the territory of Hydro-electric power plant. It is also possible to install some filters on the functioning turbines… There are many options and each of them has its disadvantages, while there is little time and means for search for a solution.
The problem was effectively solved by the director of the Cascade of Tulom H-plants (CTHP) A.P.Tkatchenko. The fire brigade of the village, near which the Hydro-electric power plant was located, planned to conduct scheduled training at the power plant. It was agreed with the head of the fire brigade that the training would take place immediately prior to exploding the foundation of the hydro-machine. The room of the Hydroelectric power plant around the foundation of hydro-machine was filled with foam. The foam did not only "capture" dust after explosion, but also cushioned the shock wave – glass windows of the building were not damaged. The dust was later removed together with the foam. No extra expenses were incurred.

Examples of social-and-engineering systems are numerous. Each organization is an example of a social-and-engineering system. There are around 20 individual divisions in the cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants and each division could be considered as an independent organization: two Hydroelectric power plants, tidal power plant, electric boiler houses, hydraulic workshop, housing-and-utilities infrastructure, hotel complex and even a house of culture and kindergartens. About 400 employees worked at Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants in 1993. To control or to analyze the operation of such an organization exclusively as engineering system is impossible because numerous problems of non-engineering nature arise in this case.

In  1992-1994 an order was placed with a group of specialists from the "Petro-TRIZ" company (M.S.Rubin, A.B.Seliutsky, A.V.Trigub, and K.E.Kulakov) for the analysis of a number of large enterprises of the Murmansk province and Karelia. In this case it was very difficult to use VEA methods only, and therefore, methods of multi-aspect analysis were employed. In contrast to VEA, this work was called "TRIZ analysis".

2. Specific features of TRIZ-analysis for social-and-engineering systems.
The notion of TRIZ-analysis was introduced in 1991 [1], and in 1992-1993 TRIZ-analysis of the cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants [2] (Murmansk Province, Russia) was conducted.
What problems arise when attempts are made to use VEA for the analysis of such complicated objects as Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants?

First of all, as a rule, such complex systems have more than one main function. This makes it impossible to create a single chain of interconnected functions. One may try to create independent chains from each main function separately. However, how could the significance of carriers of these functions be compared later - during problem selection?  What is more important, for example, - a bearing of the Hydro-turbine, or the pipe of the heat pipeline to a village? Besides, the same subdivisions may concurrently work for the performance of main functions. For example, Nijnyaya Tuloma Hydroelectric power plant not only converts water energy into electric energy, but also supplies electric energy to the village of Murmashi.

One more problem is associated with a large number of components in complex systems. When an attempt is made to create a unified system of functions, the great majority of functions will have a very low rank and it will be necessary to consider these functions as useless. An attempt could be made to split a complex system into a number of simpler ones and then to conduct VEA for them. For example, a Hydro-turbine could easily be a wothful object for independent analysis. There could be about one hundred of such independent objects at the cascade of Tuloma Hedroelectric power plants, which could be subjected to VEA. It will take no less than 10 years to perform such analysis, even at the quickest rates possible. Nobody would agree to order such an analysis and its efficiency will not be high.

During the analysis of the Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants, the sharpest contradictions were singled out, which appeared in the organization by the moment of analysis. How was it done? 

Existing non-desirable effects (NE) were formulated as applied to all subdivisions of the cascade. Based on preliminary analysis of these NE, contradictions were formulated, which are observed at the cascade of the Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants.

The formulation of contradictions implied the identification of their essence and mechanisms leading to this contradiction. VEA methods could also be applied to the objects, which are singled out using the said method (material carriers of contradictions).
There could be different sources for identifying the contradictions and the contradictions themselves can have different origins. I'll try to discuss it below. The following form of identifying the contradictions was used in the analysis of the Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants.

A working team was formed at the power plant, which included the director and all managers of key subdivisions of the Cascade. The majority of participants of this team had TRIZ training. The whole work was subdivided into 7 stages:
- preliminary stage;
- analysis of upper level (the level of subdivisions) - undesirable effects and formulation of contradictions;
- analysis of subdivisions of the Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants - undesirable effects and formulation of contradictions;
- analysis of identified undesirable effects and contradictions, search for resolution of these contradictions;
- analysis and classification of proposed solutions and suggestions;
- forecast of evolution of the Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants;
- final stage.

In the course of analysis we tried to make the most of experience and knowledge of specialists from the Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants that had been working at this enterprise for many years. It is not always simple. Very often the employees try not to talk with "visiting" TRIZ analysts about the sore points. Very important in this respect is the position of the director of the Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants, who really wanted to know the independent standpoint at the problems of the Cascade. Of equal importance was to create a confidential atmosphere in the relationships with the employees of the Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants. Even a document called "Ethical Principles of Performing TRIZ-analysis" was worked out and approved (See Appendix 1). In fact, these principles were a part of the contract for the performance of TRIZ analysis. However, neither was this sufficient.

In order to obtain required information and create confidential relationships with those who possess this information, it is necessary to do thorough preparatory work. The human is the main link in social-and-engineering systems. The smartest machine, the most unique invention is nothing as compared to the abilities and endless inventiveness of the human. In order to obtain adequate information for the analysis and for successful implementation of developed recommendations, it is very important to be able to set up positive business relationships with key employees at the enterprise. The task is rather far from being simple. It is possible to propose several recommendations from our experience (see appendix 2).

The analysis of identified undesirable effects enables to classify these effects and formulate the contradictions. An undesirable effect is not always associated with a contradiction. For example, it could be said that one of the undesirable effects is the insufficient amount of machines for minor operations or tools – these are organizational issues that are most probably not associated with any serious contradictions.
Hypotheses on the presence of contradiction formulated during the analysis, as a rule, require additional (specifying) information.

Example 4. In the course of analysis of the enterprise everybody, with whom the analytical team spoke, carefully avoided mentioning one of the subdivisions. It was strange, since the issue discussed was the application of new innovative technologies, while the subdivision consisted of about 20 persons, and the cost of fixed assets exceeded the cost of many other subdivisions at the enterprise. It was always difficult to get a pass to this subdivision. All this caused certain anxiety.

The analysis of documents related to this subdivision yielded an unexpected result. It appeared that the expenses for its operation exceed the income. It was impossible to explain the activity of a loss-making subdivision by the functional necessity. And the conditions of work at this subdivision were very complex, even strict.
The employees, working in this subdivision naturally understood this situation. The team did not have any Real Useful Goal. It had to lead to conflicts inside the team and to low quality of work. A social-and-psychological conflict appears inside the team and this conflict inevitably leads to production-and-functional conflict. It is easy to imagine how the people, who haven't got a clear common goal, enter into mutual conflicts, how they loose psychological control over their own personality, which inevitably leads to family conflicts, how the technological disturbances take place resulting in failures of expensive machinery and installations. No innovation could be successfully implemented by a person with non-balanced social-and-psychological objectives.
Yet we managed to meet the management of this innovation department. We enjoyed a friendly welcome. The managers told us that everything was fine. There were no "undesirable effects". When we ourselves started telling them, what problems, in our opinion, they have, we astounded the management. "Ice" melted and we started to seriously discuss the vital problems of the subdivision. In some time our main suggestions were implemented.

3. Methodological problems of TRIZ analysis.
Multi-aspect TRIZ-analysis of social-and-engineering systems implies a number of problems that are of methodological nature. Let us try to formulate some of them.
3.1. Methodological recommendations are required stating, what aspects in what cases (for what systems) should be taken into account when performing the TRIZ analysis.
3.2. A problem formulated in one aspects may have a solution at the level of another aspect area. Of which particular?  Currently there are recommendations (tools) in ARIZ on reformulation of problems (contradictions), which were formulated in the language of engineering requirements into the language of physical properties (physical contradictions). Similar tools inventory should be also created for the reformulation of social-and-economic problems into engineering ones and vice versa. It is necessary to develop methodological recommendations for the transition of problem formulation from one aspect level to another. It is possible that such mechanism will be created as a universal one - for any type of aspect.
3.3. The transition from consideration of problems within the frames of engineering requirements to considering these problems in terms of their physical properties required the introduction of new notions and terms into TRIZ: physical contradiction, physical effect, etc. Similar changes should also take place, if the problems are analyzed in a multi-aspect way. For example, the terms "contradiction of requirements" could be used instead of "engineering contradiction", and "contradiction of properties" could substitute "physical contradiction".  Alongside this, such terms as business contradictions, art contradictions, etc. are beginning to find use.
3.4. Multi-aspect approach to the analysis of systems enables to single out two types of contradictions:
- contradictions inside one aspect layer: adherence to one requirement using known methods leads to degrading of another requirement expressed in terms of the same aspect layer.  Any engineering, physical, art-related, social or other contradiction can serve as an example of this type of contradictions. In this case the contradiction of one aspect layer could be related to the contradiction of another aspect layer. For example, transition from engineering contradiction to the physical one. 
- inter-aspect contradictions: requirements or features of one aspect layer enter into a contradiction with requirements or features of another aspect layer. Typical is the contradiction between formal and non-formal leader in a team, between engineering and aesthetic (art-related) requirements. For example, analysis in psychodrama (Ja.L.Moreno) is based on inter-aspect contradictions [3]: contradictions between socio-emotional (formation of an ability to enter into inter-personal relationships) and role-related features of the personality.
Example 5. Nijnetulomskaya Hydroelectric power plant was put into operation in 1936. It was the second Hydroelectric power plant on the Kolsky peninsula and therefore, a coordinating organization - Kolenergo - was established. For the first time they were located in the same building.
Verkhnetulomskaya Hydroelectric power plant, the power production capacity of which is more than 6 times greater than that of Nidgnetulomskaya Hydroelectric power plant, was put into operation in 1965 [4]. A new company was organized - Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants. The offices of the Cascade management were located in its production-and-functional center – in the premises of the Verkhnetulomskaya Hydroelectric power plant.
This is how the structural-and-organizational inter-aspect contradiction arised. From the standpoint of efficient interaction with KolEnergo, it is better to place the management of the Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants at Nijnetulomskaya plant (in the village of Mourmashi), while from the standpoint of production and functional position – it is better to place the management of the Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants at Verkhnetulomskaya plant. This contradiction "attracts" a number of undesirable effects.
At present the management of the Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants is located in the village of Mourmashi.

Currently only the contradictions within one aspect layer - engineering or physical - are accepted in TRIZ. Multi-aspect contradictions lead to mixing of aspects during the formulation of contradictions of requirements, - for example, engineering requirements may enter into contradictions with art-related requirements [5].

Standardization of contradictions is also possible based on the type of source of contradictions, for example:
- contradictory requirements originated from one and the same system (for example, performance of required function and concurrent reduction of expenses);
- contradictions in hierarchic system of functions being performed;
- contradictory requirements to features of one and the same system.

Different nature of contradictions preconditions certain specific features of standard formulation of contradictions as well as method for analyzing them. In particular, during the analysis of social-and-engineering systems, after formulating the requirements contradiction in one of the aspects (RC1), a transition could be made not to the contradiction of features (physical contradiction), but to the contradiction of requirements, but in a different aspect (RC 1 - RC 2 or RCn). Selection of aspect, in which the requirement contradiction is formulated, could be made based on comparison with the level of global nature of the problem as well as of problem situation resources.

Selection of aspect, in which the requirements contradictions are to be considered, also influences the resources that are employed for solving, choice of operation zone of the conflict and tools that are used for resolving this conflict.

3.5. Selection of problems and problem solving include the same-type processes. When selecting the problems and solving them, it is possible to single out 7 main processes:
- obtainment of information concerning the requirements to the system;
- obtainment of information on the system, its components and structure;
- obtainment and refinement of information on relationships within the system and on external relationships;
- formulation and refinement of contradictions within the system;
- identification of resources and possible changes;
- identification of changes that are necessary for the system to meet the requirements;
- identification of consequences from changes introduced to the system (supersystems, subsystems).

For problem selection the major emphasis is placed upon the obtainment of new information, while for problem solving the emphasis is with the search for possible changes. For example, G.S.Altshuller included the same mechanisms into different versions of ARIZ (both for problem selection and for problem solving: analysis of contradiction, ideal solution, resources, etc.).
This approach makes it possible to develop and use of mechanisms of the same type both for situation analysis plus problem selection and for solving selected problems. Besides, at the stage of problem selection the terminology of one aspect layer could be used, while during the stage of transition to problem solving the terminology of a different (selected) aspect layer could be used.

3.6. The necessity of switch-over from purely physical notions to abstract ones already aroused during the evolution of TRIZ notional inventory. We are talking first of all about the notion of Field in Su-Field analysis, in which field is understood as any kind of interaction, including such ones as mechanical field, odor field, acoustic field …

Multi-aspect analysis makes it necessary to perform a similar transition in relation to space. An important place in TRIZ is occupied by the analysis of operating space – i.e. the space, where the conflict arises and where this conflict has to be eliminated. When dealing with engineering problems, a physical space is most often a place where a conflict takes place. However, for the problems in the field of electronics and in energy systems with distributed parameters, it is not always possible to single out the physical space of a conflict. Moreover, very often it is not possible to single out the physical space of a conflict in social, physical and in many other systems.  In this case it is necessary to construct the abstract (matrix) space of interaction of system components and to single out the zone of conflict in this space.

Multi-aspect TRIZ analysis deals with fairly different areas of knowledge, which, as a rule, already have an analytical inventory of their own, - for example, in the field of finance, economics and business. This enables, on the one hand, to transfer analytical methods from one area to another via generalization of them, and on the other hand, to integrate analytical methods from different areas. As an example, we can mention the integration of analytical methods of TRIZ and business: SWOT-analysis, "Boston matrix", etc. [6].
Development of methodological tools for TRIZ analysis is an independent research work. We will quote only some of recommendations that could be useful in conducting TRIZ analysis.
4. Determination of "global character" of the problem.

Any problem situation could be described in terms of 4 characteristics:
- from what standpoint (in the interests of whom) should the problem situation be resolved;
- what time period in the past or in future does the problem situation embrace (for example, several centuries, less than one century, dozens of years, less than 10 years, less than one year, less than one month, less than one day, less than one hour);
- what spatial-and-social scale does the problem situation have (for example, the entire world, several states, one state, the region of one state, the city, the district of the city, the workshop, the house, the office);
- what is the system level of the problem: phylogenesis (historical evolution) or ontogenesis (individual evolution).

It is necessary to stick to the principle: the level of "global character" of a problem to be solved (a set of problems) should not exceed the level of the chosen problem and correspondingly - of the sought-for solution.
For example, a problem in Example 2 was initially stated as the general one, characterizing the branch as a whole – it occurs at any district heating plant. Time resources (2 days) for solving it did not correspond to the level of the problem and complexity of technology.

Therefore the problem rank was lowered to the level of the problem encountered at a particular district heating plant and reformulated from the engineering problem to a legal one. Resources of the situation were used – at the Apatity district heating plant there was a device for express-analysis of coal quality.
This is not the matter of choosing between mini-problem and maxi-problem. Whatever problem is chosen, it is necessary to identify the level of this problem and to formulate problems based on this level.

In example 1 we quoted the problem of organizing a set of fast food facilities at the seashore of a seaport. In this situation a problem could be selected, which is associated with illegal actions of the mayor. It is not worse and it is not better than the way, which the enterpriser has undertaken - establishing a floating restaurant. Only one has to clearly understand, what problem has been chosen: to earn money or to struggle for justice. It is also possible to select both these problems for solving, but the strategy and resources for solving them will be different, they shouldn't be mixed up. Otherwise, it inevitably would lead to contradictions and new problems.

5. Multi-aspect, element-by-element analysis.
The following entities are singled out in a multi-aspect element-by-element analysis of a system under consideration:
- elements of which a system consists;
- aspects in which a system will be analyzed;
- parameters, in terms of which a comparison will be conducted.

It is also necessary to assign priorities to the above-indicated aspects - which of them is more important in this particular analysis.
As an example, let us consider a multi-aspect element-by-element analysis of Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric power plants at the upper level (at the level of its sub-divisions).
For the sake of simplicity, let us include only 4 elements in our analysis. Taking into account the interests of the Client, who ordered the actual analysis, we will call them as follows:
- Sub-division 1;
- Sub-division 2;
- Sub-division 3;
- Sub-division 4.
Let us consider them from the viewpoint of aspects, which are listed in the order of importance:
1. Functional aspect;
2. Economic aspect;
3. Organization-and-administration aspect.

Generated electric energy (for the sake of comparison reduced to 100%) will be taken as a parameter reflecting the functional aspect. Usually solvers try to increase this parameter. Functional aspect was regarded as fundamental (leading) one, and comparisons will be conducted in terms of this parameter.
The cost of basic assets (reduced to 100% for the sake of comparison) will be taken as a parameter reflecting the economic aspect. Usually solvers try to decrease this parameter.
Expert estimate of degree of information awareness and influence upon administrative decisions (for the sake of comparison reduced to 100%) will be taken as a parameter reflecting the organization-and-administration aspect. Usually solvers try to increase this parameter.

Aspect of analysis




Parameter 1 =

– (Economic –Functional)**

Parameter 2 = (Administrative – Functional)

Subdivision 1






Subdivision 2






Subdivision 3






Subdivision 4






Analysis of the Table shows that in sub-division 1 a conflict is possible, which is associated with low influence upon the decisions taken, while in sub-division 3 problems are possible, which are associated with its low economic efficiency.
Different versions of this analysis are possible. For example, if we chose any other parameter as the base aspect, the conclusions could be somewhat different from the ones that were obtained in the above case.
A building could be analyzed from the standpoint of load-carrying ability, seismic stability, convenience of use (ergonomics), aesthetic perception, convenience for transport communications, etc. When they are compared in relation to aesthetic (base) aspect, one set of contradictions and problems will be obtained, and when from the standpoint of cost aspect other problems will be identified.

Problem elements (subdivisions) identified at the upper level could be additionally analyzed in greater detail. For example, for the analysis of problems from subdivision 1 it is possible to identify, of which components the notion "degree of information awareness and influence upon the administrative solution" is composed and to perform similar analysis as applied to these components. Probably, there is an overlapping with factor analysis – it is necessary to understand, which parameters should be included in the analysis and which should not.  It is possible to use the variation of parameter (rate, acceleration) in time and/or in space as a parameter.
Not only material objects can serve as elements in social-and-engineering systems. The presence of social-and-psychological and other types of relationships makes it necessary to distinguish systems with so-called "soft" relationships (the term was created by analogy to software) and "hard" relationships (the term was created by analogy to hardware). In systems with "soft" relationships (engineering, social, and art-related) it is possible to formulate inter-aspect contradictions – engineering-and-art-related, social-and-engineering, etc. In systems with "hard" relationships (physical, chemical, biochemical, and physiological) contradictions could be formulated only at the level of one aspect layer (physical approach should not be mixed with chemical, and so forth).
A more detailed analysis is possible, if specific parameters are used as applied to each of the system elements individually or all existing interactions between the elements are taken into account (matrix or field of elements interaction). For example, the following form of Table could be used for that:



Subdivision 2

Subdivision N

No. of aspect













Subdivision 1













Subdivision 2

























Subdivision N














Multi-aspect element analysis could be regarded as a generalization of already known methods for analysis of different types of systems. For example, if we take functional significance and cost as aspects of analysis, we would obtain the analog of the value engineering analysis (VEA). If we analyze the engineering system from the standpoint of its actual functional parameters and consumer features of customer demand, we would obtain an analog of MPV analysis [8]. If we perform the analysis of the system based on comparison of socio-emotional aspect and role qualities of a personality, we would obtain the analog of psychodrama (sociogram***).
Methods for multi-aspect element-by-element analysis can generalize the possibilities of already known methods for analysis, create unified mechanisms for analysis for fairly different types of social-and-engineering systems.

6. Methods for forecasting and problem statement in SES.

The method for system multi-layer forecasting is directed at creation of a system of interconnected ideal forecasts of social-and-engineering systems evolution and is described in the article [7]. The system of forecasts is developed based on global forecasts (forecast) and the trends of phylogenetic development of social-and-engineering systems (cities, transport, power industry, life support, etc.). Forecast images are then used in TRIZ analysis of a particular social-and-engineering system.
For example, in 1988-1989 within the scope of work on developing the concept of NEW – natureless engineering world [9] – a forecast was prepared, which was called "Water without water pipeline". The objective is that all residential houses are supplied with water, but without water pipeline and sewerage. It is clear that this would require a number of engineering solutions. And not only engineering solutions. For example, in some European countries the prices for sewerage drains have been dramatically increased. They are more expensive than the cost of pure water. This should stimulate the development of closed cycle technologies.

When TRIZ-analysis of Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelelctric power plants was performed in 1992-1993, one of the problems was the functioning of electric boiler houses that supplied heat to the entire village of Mourmashi, in which the employees of Nizhnetulomskaya Hydroelelctric power plants of Kolynergo and their families live. The main problem: failures of water pipeline and electric boilers because of electric corrosion. When describing the problems of electric boiler houses, an idea of forecast "Water without water pipeline" emerged. Only in this case water delivers heat. The problem was reformulated. There should be heat in houses, while there should be no water pipeline and electric boilers with all the problems inherent to them. In this particular case, the solution is obvious: houses should be heated by electricity, not by hot water. This approach gives considerable saving. The entire subdivision is no longer necessary. It also became clear that electric cable laid to houses has a sufficient diameter and can withstand additional electric load resulting from installation of electric heaters.


Another example of a forecast is given in "Sports - a trap of the XX century" [10] published in 1988. It is said in the forecast that the sports movement will be replaced eventually by the international physical training movement. Nobody knew anything about fitness on these days, it has just appeared in the USA. Now this is a powerful industry, into which several dozen million people are involved. "In London, fitness clubs are regularly visited by 20% of population, in Barcelona — 35%, in some districts of USA this value is 40%, in Germany — 60%. In these countries fitness centers are inseparable part in the chain of everyday life: home — work — fitness club". The annual turnover of the world fitness market has attained $77 billion annually and is constantly increasing. The annual growth of fitness services in Russia constitutes 30% [11]. Sports industry has become explicitly inferior to fitness, as it was forecasted already in 1988.

The forecast made 20 years ago, could be used not only for the formulation of engineering and research problems, but also for cost efficient investments.
Forecasting is one of the tools for efficient problem selection and statement of problems of social-and-engineering systems evolution. A system of forecasts that is necessary for engineers, inventors and enterprisers could be formed based on global (supersystem) forecast of civilization development. Such developments as design of natureless engineering world can become a foundation for such forecasts.

An ideal image of the future, which is outlined in a system of interconnected and mutually complementing forecasts, could be a reference point both for selection of problems and for evaluation of proposed solutions. A system of global forecasts for social-and-engineering systems should become a part of the culture, supermodel of the world [12] of engineer and inventor, as was just the case with the architects, for example, in the creative activity of Le Corbusier. 

7. Conclusions.

- For the analysis of social-and-engineering systems it is necessary to use multi-aspect approach taking into account not only the engineering aspects of the system.

- TRIZ analysis of social-and-engineering systems should be based not only on the analysis of functions, but on the identification and analysis of existing conflicts.

- Multi-aspect analysis of social-and-engineering systems makes it necessary not only to solve a number of problems of methodological nature, but also to revise some traditional beliefs, which are already accepted in TRIZ. For example, it is necessary to switchover from engineering contradictions to inter-aspect contradictions of requirements (CR), and from physical contradictions to contradictions of features (CF) of "hard" forms of substance (physical, chemical, biochemical, and physiological). When determining the operation zone of the conflict, it is necessary to use the matrix of interaction of a conflicting pair of a social-and-engineering system instead of physical space.

- In the course of problem statement it is necessary to stick to the principle: level of "global nature" of problem to be solved (or a set of problems) should not exceed the level of solution being sought. The notion of mini-problem accepted in TRIZ does not always lead to minimum changes, while maxi-problem does not always lead to global and complex changes.

- Multi-aspect element-by-element analysis generalizes possibilities of already known methods for analysis and creates unified mechanisms for analysis of fairly different types of social-and-engineering systems.

- Ideal multi-layer forecasting is an effective tool for selection and statement of problems for the development of social-and-engineering systems. A system of interconnected global forecasts should become a part of culture for an engineer and inventor.

8. List of References 

1. "Problems of Evolution of TRIZ - TCPE" M.S.Rubin, Petrozavodsk, 1991. "TRIZ Journal" 19.11.91  
2. M.S.Rubin, TRIZ-Analysis of the Cascade of Tuloma Hydroelectric Power Plants (short abstract), 1993,  
3. Morenot Ja. Psychodrama / Translated from English by G.Pimochkina, Ye.Rachkova. - M. : Aprel Press: EXMO-Press, 2001. (See also  ,  )
4. Web-site of JSC "Kolenergo".  
5. Yu.Murashkovsky. "Biography of Arts", "Scandinavia", Petrozavodsk, 2006.
6. M.S.Rubin, TRIZ in Small Business – a Competitor's Head Start, 2004, Florence.  
7. M.S.Rubin, 1999 г., Petrozavodsk. TRIZ-Based Methods of Forecasting.  
8. S.Litvin "Business to Technology - New Stage of TRIZ Development". TRIZ Future 2005 ETRIA Conference, Graz, Austria, November 2005.
9. G.S.Altshuller, M.S.Rubin, "What Will Happen after the Final Victory. Eight Thoughts about Nature and Engineering", 1987,  
10. M.S.Rubin, "Sports - a Trap of the 20th Century", Baku, October 1988,  
11. Fitness and Franchising,  26.02.07
12. Yu.Murashkovsky, Research and Researchers, 21.11. 2005,  

Appendix 1.

Ethical principles of conducting TRIZ analysis for enterprises and organizations.

1. TRIZ experts are guided by the goals and tasks, which have been formulated by the enterprise itself and its management. Jointly with the specialists the experts can develop and refine these goals and tasks, but not substitute them with others, more "profitable" or "noble".     
2. The experts conduct the analysis in close cooperation with employees of enterprises of all levels: from the top managers to those employees who are directly engaged in work.
3. The information received by an expert from a consultant cannot be used against this consultant or his enterprise (company).
4. The goal of an expert is not only to help an enterprise or organization on the whole, but, if possible, each employee individually. It is desirable to stick to the principle: there are problems, but there are no guilty persons, there are disadvantages, but there are no malicious persons.
5. Experts avoid to give any estimates to particular persons working at an enterprise, they are not engaged in staff policy - this is an exclusive right of the enterprise and its management. Estimates of the type "good' and "bad" are unacceptable in the analysis of particular individuals.
6. An expert does not substitute the functions and duties of individual employees of an enterprise. The activity of the expert could be compared with the work of a coach. His goal does not imply that he must be able to run quicker than others; his goal implies that the runners, whom he coaches, should come to finish earlier than the others.
7. Experts try to obtain the best results with minimum changes at an enterprise.

Appendix 2.

Some recommendations on organization of TRIZ analysis of enterprises.

1. The support of the top management of an organization, in which the analysis is conducted, is of great importance. This support should not be reduced to purely formal support (orders, etc.). It is desirable that top management personally takes part in the analysis at all its stages as well as in taking decisions in the course of analysis.

2. It is necessary to conduct the analysis jointly with a working team consisting of key specialists of an organization. We had the experience when not the heads of subdivisions were included in the working team, but their deputies. By the end of work it led to a conflict, which had to be settled during several days.
3. Conversation with a key specialist of an organization is an important part of analysis. It is necessary to be prepared for it in the most diligent way, taking into account different aspects of this meeting: from the business aspect to personal aspect.
4. It is necessary to most deeply study a device or process, which is being discussed even in such cases, when it seems to you (and this is probably true), that you needn't know all this. It will be practically impossible to convince a specialist who devoted the most part of his life to this field of knowledge that you needn't know all this about a device or process. The conversation will be a failure.
5. It is very important to know and understand the nature of interaction and relationships between subdivisions - not only functional, but also personal and organizational. It is necessary to have information on main parameters, in terms of which subdivisions could be compared one with another: the cost of main assets, a share of contribution in the main product, personnel, headcount, amount of resources under control (financial, material, etc.). For example, somebody may consider (not without certain reasons for that) that a thermal electric generator is a key unit for the technology at a heat and power plant. This standpoint may become an obstacle in dealing with the head of transport department of the heat and power plant. The cost of coal in the final product of the heat and power plant is approximately 70%. This undoubtedly confers some "weight" to the opinion of a director of this subdivision.
6. In addition to information obtained from specialists of an enterprise, it is necessary to have information from independent sources and experts. It is necessary to work out independent idea of a situation existing in this or that subdivision and perspectives for the future: main contradictions and trends of development.

7. It is necessary to take into account the personal features of specialists with whom you perform joint analysis. In some cases it could be recommended to involve a psychologist in TRIZ analysis work, provided that the said psychologist is familiar with the fundamentals of TRIZ.

* Aspect - (Lat. aspectus - type), a standpoint, from which an object, phenomenon or a notion is analyzed; the perspective serving as a reference frame to be used for analysis of an object, facet of an object studied by a certain science: philosophical Aspect, economic Aspect, etc.
** A minus sign is put because the parameter "cost of main assets" should be decreased. 
*** Sociogram - a method for presenting interpersonal and inter-group relationships (sympathies/antipathies) in the form of a system of interrelations (graph) between the individuals or social groups.