Non-Governmental Organization "TRIZ Developers Summit"
Primary sponsor of TRIZ Summit 2010 Intel
Sponsors:
Saint Petersburg State University
CITC Algorithm
International TRIZ Association
TRIZ-BASED FORECASTING METHODS
Collection of scientific papers
Library of TRIZ Developers Summit
Issue 3
Saint Petersburg
July 26, 2010
TRIZ-Based Forecasting Methods/ Collection of scientific papers, TRIZ Developers Summit Library, Issue 3, Saint Petersburg, 2010. – 248 p.
Collection of scientific papers "TRIZ-Based Forecasting Methods" is in-tended for TRIZ specialists, engineers, inventors, and specialists in innovation and forecasting as well as for trainers in the field of these disciplines. The collection includes latest developments of TRIZ specialists in the field of forecasting the evolution of systems - both in engineering and non-engineering spheres.
Current collection of published papers includes articles related to the theory and practice of TRIZ methods application in the field of forecasting. The collection includes not only the articles written in 2010, but also those written in previous years.
The articles are published in authors' version.
Compiled by: M.S.Rubin, A.V.Kudryavtsev, S.S.Litvin, V.M.Petrov
Translation from Russian into English: B.V.Kozhevnikov and A.P.Dyachenko
© TRIZ Summit, 2010
© M.S.Rubin, A.V.Kudryavtsev, S.S.Litvin, V.M.Petrov
TABLE OF CONTENTS I
INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................................. 5
SECTION I. ..........................................................................................................................................................................6
PAPERS AND ABSTRACTS FOR TRIZ SUMMIT 2010 ................................................................................................6
A.V.Efimov. Forecasting on the Basis of Unified System "Trends-Standards-Techniques" ...............................6
V.Petrov. Forecasting Methodology ..............................................................................................................................18
V.Petrov. System of trends for engineering evolution as forecasting tool ............................................................19
M.Rubin. ÀSI-Forecasting ..............................................................................................................................................20
M.S.Rubin, I.O.Odintsov, A.V.Ponomareva, O.I.Zinenko. TRIZ-Based Forecasting of Software Evolution .....36
A. Kashkarov. Improving the Operation Principle of Engineering System ..............................................................50
B.Akselrod. Experience of Effective Technological Forecasting Retrospective Analysis of an Actual Project ..51
Yu.Murashkovsky. System for Forecasting New Scientific Ideas ..........................................................................................................79
Yu.Danilovsky. Short-Term Forecasting of ES Evolution and Methodology for Taking Market Aspects of TESE into Account ..90
N.Feygenson, A.Kynin. Application of "Mild" Modeling to Forecasting of Engineering System Evolution ...................................113
A. Pinyayev. Algorithms of Defining an Application Condition of a Functional Clue ........................................................................114
A. Pinyayev. Application Condition as a Starting Point of TESE-based Prediction ..........................................................................130
A. Pinyayev. Why-why Analysis of yet to Be Created Technical System 138
S.Litvin, M.Gershman. Parallel Evolutionary Lines Application for Technology Forecast 147
S. Litvin. Main Parameters of Value as a Tool for Technology Forecast 151
N.Becattini, G.Cascini, F.Rotini. Correlations between the evolution of contradictions and the law of ideality increase 152
SECTION II. 177
TRIZ SUMMIT ARCHIVE 177
G.Altshuller, M.Rubin. What will happen after the final victory. Eight ideas concerning nature and technology 177
S.Litvin, V.Gerassimov. LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF ENGINEERING SYSTEMS EVOLUTION BASED ON VEA AND TRIZ 192
M.Rubin. Future Is Projecting on the basis of TRIZ. 200
V.Petrov. LAWS OF DEVELOPMENT OF NEEDS 206
INDEX OF AU-THORS……………………………………………………..246